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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.