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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest upset.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with five other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still