A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
